The El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and is likely to become “very strong” in late 2026 and early 2027, according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, raising concerns over elevated climate risk for India.
In its latest ENSO forecast, published on September 21, the IRI said the Nino 3.4 index, a key measure of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached 3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September. All 22 models surveyed by the institute, including 13 dynamical and nine statistical models, forecast very strong El Nino conditions persisting through the 2026-27 winter.
The IRI put the probability of El Nino conditions at 100 per cent through February 2027, easing to 61 per cent by mid-2027, and said the event could rank among the strongest on record. The institute also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole to turn strongly positive from September through December 2026, before returning toward neutral conditions in early 2027. A positive IOD often develops alongside El Nino, though the two phenomena can occur independently.
For India, El Nino is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and can affect crop output, although a positive IOD can sometimes offset these effects. Experts noted that El Nino’s impact on India is not determined by the Nino 3.4 index alone, with the IOD, monsoon circulation, regional sea-surface temperatures and winter weather patterns all playing a role. They cautioned that while the IRI forecast signals elevated climate risk, it does not by itself provide a precise rainfall or agricultural output forecast for the country.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which a large part of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. For India, it can translate into reduced monsoon rainfall, a warmer and drier winter, and increased stress on crops and water availability.
(Source: The Economic Times / PTI)
