Bangladesh’s historic win over Australia in Darwin has done more than strengthen their own World Test Championship (WTC) campaign. It has also made India’s route to next year’s final considerably more complicated.
Before the two Tests in Darwin and Galle, Bangladesh sat fourth in the WTC table, one place above India. That position was easy to dismiss as a quirk of the early standings. Bangladesh had played only four Tests, losing 1-0 in Sri Lanka before sweeping Pakistan 2-0 at home.
Their trip to Australia was expected to provide a much tougher examination. Instead, Bangladesh produced one of the biggest results of their Test history, beating Australia by nine wickets in Darwin.
The victory has taken Bangladesh’s WTC points percentage to 66.67%, while India remain on 48.15%. The gap between the two sides has now stretched to more than 18 percentage points.
That is a significant development for India, particularly because their own campaign has already become more complicated. A 2-2 draw in England and a 2-0 home series win over the West Indies had provided momentum, but the 2-0 defeat to South Africa exposed how quickly that can disappear.
India’s two-Test series in Sri Lanka was therefore expected to be an important opportunity to rebuild their position. Instead, rain has already disrupted the opening Test in Galle after a productive first day, with more wet weather forecast to threaten the remaining days.
India’s remaining schedule does not offer an easy route back into contention. After Sri Lanka, they face New Zealand away, followed by a five-Test home series against Australia. New Zealand away is traditionally difficult, while Australia will provide another significant challenge even in familiar conditions. If India continue dropping points, they could require a dominant result against Australia to compensate.
The current table makes the situation clearer. Australia lead with 77.77%, followed by South Africa on 75%, New Zealand on 72.22%, Bangladesh on 66.67% and India on 48.15%.
Bangladesh’s rise also means India cannot simply depend on other contenders losing points. Many of the leading teams still have matches against each other, meaning points dropped by one side will often be picked up by another.
For India, the immediate priority remains Sri Lanka. A strong result in Galle would begin closing the gap, while another poor series would leave them increasingly reliant on a near-perfect finish to the WTC cycle.
Bangladesh was not expected to remain in the conversation when the cycle began. Their win in Darwin has changed that.
