India’s monsoon is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with longer dry spells interrupted by intense bursts of rainfall, raising concerns over agricultural output, food prices and electricity demand.
According to Bloomberg, the country recorded its fifth-driest June on record, with rainfall nearly 40 percent below normal, before heavy downpours in early July brought about a month’s worth of rain to cities such as Mumbai within a week. As of July 19, national rainfall was again about 24 percent below normal, reflecting an increasingly erratic monsoon pattern.
Scientists attribute the shift to the combined effects of El Niño and global warming. According to Raghuram Murtugudde, visiting professor at IIT Kanpur and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, rising temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture before releasing it in concentrated bursts, disrupting the rainfall patterns that farmers have historically relied upon.
With nearly half of India’s farmland dependent on rainfall rather than irrigation, the changing monsoon is disrupting sowing of summer crops, threatening rural incomes and increasing the risk of food inflation. The irregular rainfall is also creating challenges beyond agriculture.
During prolonged breaks in the monsoon, high humidity and above-normal temperatures are driving up electricity demand as households and businesses rely more heavily on cooling. Bengaluru recently recorded its hottest July day in 112 years, while the India Meteorological Department has warned that several regions are experiencing daytime temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above seasonal averages.
Meteorologists also point to unusual atmospheric conditions affecting the movement of rain-bearing systems. According to private forecaster Skymet Weather Services, atmospheric blocking patterns at high altitudes are preventing monsoon systems from following their usual path, making rainfall distribution increasingly difficult to predict.
While the India Meteorological Department expects seasonal rainfall to reach around 94 percent of the long-term average, private forecasters have warned that the second half of the monsoon could experience larger rainfall deficits, adding further uncertainty for agriculture, power planning and the broader economy.
