Yemen has threatened to shut the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway through which roughly 5 million barrels of oil travel daily and 12 percent of global maritime trade passes annually. The warning comes as US-Iran hostilities intensify, raising the possibility that two major shipping chokepoints could be disrupted simultaneously, potentially driving oil prices to $200 per barrel, according to reporting in Mint.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea and sits at a crossroads of global energy supply. Any significant blockade would force massive changes in international shipping patterns. Currently, oil trades between $70 and $90 per barrel depending on the crude type. At $200 per barrel, global energy costs would spike dramatically, affecting everything from manufacturing to food production. For India, which imports roughly 70 percent of its crude oil, such a price surge would immediately translate to higher petrol and diesel prices at pumps, increased transportation costs, and broader inflation affecting ordinary consumers.
The threat gains credibility because Yemen sits in an already unstable region where various armed groups have demonstrated capacity to disrupt shipping. Previous attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have already pushed up insurance costs and prompted some shipping companies to reroute cargo, adding weeks to delivery times. A complete closure would be far more severe, forcing alternative routes around Africa that would increase costs substantially and slow global supply chains.
What makes this situation unusually dangerous is timing. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21 percent of global crude oil passes, could also face disruptions due to US-Iran tensions. If both waterways experience simultaneous blockades or attacks, even for a short period, the global oil market could face unprecedented shortages. Energy traders are already factoring this risk into their prices, which is why oil has become more volatile in recent weeks.
For India specifically, the consequences would be immediate and widespread. Petrol and diesel prices are directly linked to global crude costs, meaning pump prices would rise sharply. This affects transportation costs for goods, increases electricity bills in states dependent on oil-fired power generation, and pushes inflation higher across consumer goods. Middle-class families already stretched by current prices would face additional pressure on their monthly budgets.
The situation remains in the threat stage, but energy markets are already responding to the possibility. The next few weeks will determine whether Yemen follows through on its warning or whether diplomatic efforts can prevent a major disruption to global shipping.
